Future global pig production systems according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

peer-reviewedGlobal pork production has increased fourfold over the last 50 years and is expected to continue growing during the next three decades. This may have considerable implications for feed use, land requirements, and nitrogen emissions. To analyze the development of the pig production sector at the scale of world regions, we developed the IMAGE-Pig model to describe changes in feed demand, feed conversion ratios (FCRs), nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) and nitrogen excretion for backyard, intermediate and intensive systems during the past few decades as a basis to explore future scenarios. For each region and production system, total production, productive characteristics and dietary compositions were defined for the 1970–2005 period. The results show that due to the growing pork production total feed demand has increased by a factor of two (from 229 to 471Tg DM). This is despite the improvement of FCRs during the 1970–2005 period, which has reduced the feed use per kg of product. The increase of nitrogen use efficiency was slower than the improvement of FCRs due to increasing protein content in the feed rations. As a result, total N excretion increased by more than a factor of two in the 1970–2005 period (from 4.6 to 11.1 Tg N/year). For the period up to 2050, the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) provide information on levels of human consumption, technical development and environmental awareness. The sustainability of pig production systems for the coming decades will be based not only on the expected efficiency improvements at the level of animal breeds, but also on four additional pillars: (i) use of alternative feed sources not competing with human food, (ii) reduction of the crude protein content in rations, (iii) the proper use of slurries as fertilizers through coupling of crop and livestock production and (iv) moderation of the human pork consumption

The warming climate aggravates atmospheric nitrogen pollution in Australia

Australia is a warm country with well-developed agriculture and a highly urbanized population. How these specific features impact the nitrogen cycle, emissions, and consequently affect environmental and human health is not well understood. Here, we find that the ratio of reactive nitrogen () losses to air over losses to water in Australia is 1.6 as compared to values less than 1.1 in the USA, the European Union, and China. Australian emissions to air increased by more than 70% between 1961 and 2013, from 1.2 Tg N yr-1 to 2.1 Tg N yr-1. Previous emissions were substantially underestimated mainly due to neglecting the warming climate. The estimated health cost from atmospheric emissions in Australia is 4.6 billion US dollars per year. Emissions of to the environment are closely correlated with economic growth, and reduction of losses to air is a priority for sustainable development in Australia

Strategies for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation in Mediterranean agriculture: A review

[EN] An integrated assessment of the potential of different management practices for mitigating specific components of the total GHG budget (N2O and CH4 emissions and C sequestration) of Mediterranean agrosystems was performed in this study. Their suitability regarding both yield and environmental (e.g. nitrate leaching and ammonia volatilization) sustainability, and regional barriers and opportunities for their implementation were also considered. Based on its results best strategies to abate GHG emissions in Mediterranean agro-systems were proposed. Adjusting N fertilization to crop needs in both irrigated and rain-fed systems could reduce N2O emissions up to 50% compared with a non-adjusted practice. Substitution of N synthetic fertilizers by solid manure can be also implemented in those systems, and may abate N2O emissions by about 20% under Mediterranean conditions, with additional indirect benefits associated to energy savings and positive effects in crop yields. The use of urease and nitrification inhibitors enhances N use efficiency of the cropping systems and may mitigate N2O emissions up to 80% and 50%, respectively. The type of irrigation may also have a great mitigation potential in the Mediterranean region. Drip-irrigated systems have on average 80% lower N2O emissions than sprinkler systems and drip-irrigation combined with optimized fertilization showed a reduction in direct N2O emissions up to 50%. Methane fluxes have a relatively small contribution to the total GHG budget of Mediterranean crops, which can mostly be controlled by careful management of the water table and organic inputs in paddies. Reduced soil tillage, improved management of crop residues and agro-industry by-products, and cover cropping in orchards, are the most suitable interventions to enhance organic C stocks in Mediterranean agricultural soils. The adoption of the proposed agricultural practices will require farmers training. The global analysis of life cycle emissions associated to irrigation type (drip, sprinkle and furrow) and N fertilization rate (100 and 300 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1)) revealed that these factors may outweigh the reduction in GHG emissions beyond the plot scale. The analysis of the impact of some structural changes on top-down mitigation of GHG emissions revealed that 3-15% of N2O emissions could be suppressed by avoiding food waste at the end-consumer level. A 40% reduction in meat and dairy consumption could reduce GHG emissions by 20-30%. Reintroducing the Mediterranean diet (i.e. similar to 35% intake of animal protein) would therefore result in a significant decrease of GHG emissions from agricultural production systems under Mediterranean conditions. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.The authors would like to thank the Spanish National R+D+i Plan (AGL2012-37815-C05-01, AGL2012-37815-C05-04) and very specifically the workshop held in December 2016 in Butron (Bizkaia) to synthesize the most promising measures to reduce N2O emissions from Spanish agricultural soils. BC3 is sponsored by the Basque Government. M. L. Cayuela thanks Fundacion Seneca for financing the project 19281/PI/14.Sanz-Cobeña, A.; Lassaletta, L.; Aguilera, E.; Del Prado, A.; Garnier, J.; Billen, G.; Iglesias, A.... (2017). Strategies for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation in Mediterranean agriculture: A review. Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment. 238:5-24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2016.09.038S52423

Reducing external costs of nitrogen pollution by relocation of pig production between regions in the European Union

This paper tests the hypothesis that relocation of pig production within the EU27 can reduce the external costs of nitrogen (N) pollution. The external cost of pollution by ammonia and nitrate from agriculture in the European Union (EU27) in 2008 was estimated at 61–215 billion € (0.5 to 1.8% of the GDP). Per capita it ranged from more than 1000 € in north-west EU27 to 50 € in Romania. The average contribution of pig production was 15%. Using provincial data (224 NUTS2 regions in EU27), the potential reduction of external N cost by relocation of pig production was estimated at 14 billion € (10% of the total). Regions most eligible for decreasing the pig stock were in western Germany, Flemish region, Denmark, the Netherlands and Bretagne, while Romania is most eligible for increasing pig production. Relocating 20 million pigs (13% of the total EU stock) decreased average external costs per capita from 900 to 785 € in the 13 NUTS2 regions where pigs were removed and increased from 69 to 107 € in 11 regions receiving pigs. A second alternative configuration of pig production was targeted at reducing exceedance of critical N deposition and closing regional nutrient cycles. This configuration relocates pigs within Germany and France, for example from Bretagne to Northern France and from Weser-Ems to Oberbayern. However, total external cost increases due to an increase of health impacts, unless when combined with implementation of best N management practices. Relocation of the pig industry in the EU27 will meet many socio-economic barriers and realisation requires new policy incentives.</p

Reducing external costs of nitrogen pollution by relocation of pig production between regions in the European Union

This paper tests the hypothesis that relocation of pig production within the EU27 can reduce the external costs of nitrogen (N) pollution. The external cost of pollution by ammonia and nitrate from agriculture in the European Union (EU27) in 2008 was estimated at 61–215 billion € (0.5 to 1.8% of the GDP). Per capita it ranged from more than 1000 € in north-west EU27 to 50 € in Romania. The average contribution of pig production was 15%. Using provincial data (224 NUTS2 regions in EU27), the potential reduction of external N cost by relocation of pig production was estimated at 14 billion € (10% of the total). Regions most eligible for decreasing the pig stock were in western Germany, Flemish region, Denmark, the Netherlands and Bretagne, while Romania is most eligible for increasing pig production. Relocating 20 million pigs (13% of the total EU stock) decreased average external costs per capita from 900 to 785 € in the 13 NUTS2 regions where pigs were removed and increased from 69 to 107 € in 11 regions receiving pigs. A second alternative configuration of pig production was targeted at reducing exceedance of critical N deposition and closing regional nutrient cycles. This configuration relocates pigs within Germany and France, for example from Bretagne to Northern France and from Weser-Ems to Oberbayern. However, total external cost increases due to an increase of health impacts, unless when combined with implementation of best N management practices. Relocation of the pig industry in the EU27 will meet many socio-economic barriers and realisation requires new policy incentives.</p

Correction to: Reducing external costs of nitrogen pollution by relocation of pig production between regions in the European Union

The article Reducing external costs of nitrogen pollution by relocation of pig production between regions in the European Union, written by Hans J. M. van Grinsven, Jan D. van Dam, Jan Peter Lesschen, Marloes H. G. Timmers, Gerard L. Velthof, Luis Lassaletta, was originally published electronically on the publisher’s internet portal (currently SpringerLink) on 28 May 2018 without open access. With the author(s)’ decision to opt for Open Choice the copyright of the article changed on April 2019.</p

Losses of ammonia and nitrate from agriculture and their effect on nitrogen recovery in the European Union and the United States between 1900 and 2050

Historical trends and levels of nitrogen (N) budgets and emissions to air and water in the European Union and the United States are markedly different. Agro-environmental policy approaches also differ, with emphasis on voluntary or incentive-based schemes in the United States versus a more regulatory approach in the European Union. This paper explores the implications of these differences for attaining long-term policy targets for air and water quality. Nutrient surplus problems were more severe in the European Union than in the United States during the 1970s and 1980s. The EU Nitrates and National Emission Ceilings directives contributed to decreases in fertilizer use, N surplus, and ammonia (NH3) emissions, whereas in the United States they stabilized, although NH3 emissions are still increasing. These differences were analyzed using statistical data for 1900-2005 and the global IMAGE model. IMAGE could reproduce NH3 emissions and soil N surpluses at different scales (European Union and United States, country and state) and N loads in the Rhine and Mississippi. The regulation-driven changes during the past 25 yr in the European Union have reduced public concerns and have brought agricultural N loads to the aquatic environment closer to US levels. Despite differences in agro-environmental policies and agricultural structure (more N-fixing soybean and more spatially separated feed and livestock production in the United States than in the European Union), current N use efficiency in US and EU crop production is similar. IMAGE projections for the IAASTD-baseline scenario indicate that N loading to the environment in 2050 will be similar to current levels. In the United States, environmental N loads will remain substantially smaller than in the European Union, whereas agricultural production in 2050 in the United States will increase by 30% relative to 2005, as compared with an increase of 8% in the European Union. However, in the United States, even rigorous mitigation with maximum recycling of manure N and a 25% reduction in fertilizer use will not achieve the policy target to halve the N export to the Gulf of Mexico

A credit system to solve agricultural nitrogen pollution

'Commentary' paper. Increasing amounts of nitrogen fertilizer have been used in agriculture during the last decades to boost food production for the increasing global human population. The marked increase in reactive nitrogen use has also contributed to severe nitrogen pollution and multiple impacts on human and ecosystems' health. Nitrogen is an important precursor to air pollution (e.g., fine particulate matter, near-surface ozone), water pollution (algal blooms, nitrate contamination), biodiversity loss (nitrogen deposition and eutrophication), soil acidification (ammonium fertilizer use), and global warming (nitrous oxide). Agricultural nitrogen pollution has decreased in some high-income countries, such as those in the European Union (EU), during the last decades, but the remaining nitrogen pollution still causes serious damage. The societal cost of nitrogen pollution by agriculture in the EU has been estimated to range from €35 to €230 billion per year and this cost appears to be greater than the farm profits from nitrogen fertilizer use, which range from €20 to €80 billion per year. Socioeconomic trade-offs between farmers and society need to be introduced to decrease nitrogen pollution

Particle toxicity’s role in air pollution — Response

A response to: Thurston, G.D., Chen, L.C., Campen, M. (2022). Particle toxicity’s role in air pollution. Science, 375(6580), 506-506

Nitrogen cycles in global croplands altered by elevated CO2

Croplands are the foundation of global food security and represent the largest nitrogen flows on Earth. Elevated atmospheric CO2 levels are a key driver of climate change with multiple impacts on food production and environmental sustainability. However, our understanding of how the cropland nitrogen cycle responds to elevated CO2 levels is not well developed. Here we demonstrate that elevated CO2 (eCO2) alone would induce a synergistic intensification of the nitrogen and carbon cycles, promoting nitrogen-use efficiency by 19% (95% confidence interval, 14–26%) and biological nitrogen fixation by 55% (95% confidence interval, 28–85%) in global croplands. This would lead to increased crop nitrogen harvest (+12 Tg yr−1), substantially lower fertilizer input requirements (−34 Tg yr−1) and an overall decline in reactive nitrogen loss (−46 Tg yr−1) under future eCO2 scenarios by 2050. The impact of eCO2 on the altered cropland nitrogen cycle would amount to US$668 bn of societal benefits by avoiding damages to human and ecosystem health. The largest benefits are expected to materialize in China, India, North America and Europe. It is paramount to incorporate the effect of rising CO2 on the nitrogen cycle into state-of-the-art Earth system models to provide robust scientific evidence for policymaking